Corrective measures are needed early again this year and probably point to another bad low DO season. Vents on turbines at Bull Shoals and Norfork dams were opened on July 14th this summer as dissolved oxygen readings fell below the state standard of 6.0 parts per million for trout waters. This is an annual occurrence, although it is typically a more severe problem during high water years. This is the third back-to-back high water year for the White River reservoirs, which is historically rare. The Corps started taking corrective action about the same time the previous two summers.

As the lakes stratify in the summer months, decaying matter in the water on the bottom of the lake uses up oxygen through microbial action. As it becomes depleted of O2, and as the powerhouse runs heavy to meet hydropower demands, that dead water gets pulled through the turbines and into the tailwaters endangering trout and other fish and aquatic life. This has resulted in numerous fish kills over the years. And it is particularly troublesome as the low DO condition worsens into the late fall of the year just as brown trout are attempting to migrate to gravel beds to spawn below the dams.

Even though a dissolved oxygen committee was formed by Governor Bill Clinton in the early 1990s to correct the problem, a decision on a remedy has been elusive and no money has come forward to fix it. The state argues this is a continued mitigation problem endemic to the building of the dams, and the Corps of Engineers counters the dams were authorized by Congress for flood control and hydropower, and the fishery is mitigated through the federally funded hatchery system which is run by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The Corps says it can’t be held responsible for the fact that low DO, which falls below the state water quality standards for trout of 6.0 ppm, limits successful spawning of trout in the river system and occasionally results in fish kills. The low DO is a problem with watershed quality, it argues. 

If the trout tailwaters were only a put-and-take fishery, then occasion fish kills might be acceptable. But impacting as it does just at the time of the brown trout spawn makes this a worse case scenario. The smallmouth fishery that was here before the construction of the dams was a natural, not a put-and-take fishery. Further, the tailwater trout fisheries have proven they can successfully compete with well established wild trout fisheries as far as producing several trout species which grow to rival trout in their native ranges and even produce world record fish. That successful natural reproduction of brown trout in the tailwater system is not only possible but likely is now without question.

The biology textbook I have states a DO level of 8.0 ppm is necessary for healthy naturally reproducing trout and in order to have a successful spawn. A DO level of 6.0 falls short of this, although Game and Fish biologists say it is a realistic number to strive for given the annual problem with the anoxic water from the dams. The Corps would like to see the state drop the water quality standard for trout to 5.0 ppm as corrective measures are expensive.

According to readings from USGS gages today, DO below Norfork dam today dropped to 4.3 milligrams per liter (this is the same as parts per million or ppm) under full generation. When this happens, the Corps usually implements a maximum load restriction which helps keep the DO level higher. As the problem worsens maximum load restrictions are further reduced, since heavy generation pulls more anoxic water off the bottom of the lake and the vents on the turbines which siphon air into the system become less effective at higher generation loads. The Corps has yet to implement those restrictions this summer. But I would look for it to happen soon.

Arkansas Game and Fish Commission biologists started using stocking restrictions on Norfork and Bull Shoals tailwaters a few years ago when DO readings consistently stay low. As the reading worsens look for these measures to be put into effect this fall. It looks to be another bad DO season on the tailwaters. The DO problem goes away as soon as the lakes finish turning over usually by December 15th.

© 2010, Scott Branyan

I received this great photo from my friend Bob Waldeck over at Cotter. He had autopsied one trout he recently caught and found this mixture of snails, red ants, beetles, mayfly nymphs and some midge shucks in the contents. This trout obviously was interested in eating a variety of foods. But the photo also shows how ready it was to pick up on an opportunity for terrestrials. I remember Gary Borger in one of his videos calling ants the “pièce de résistance” of a trout’s terrestrial meal. This photo seems to bear that out.

Stomach contents of trout from Bull Shoals tailwater. Photo by Bob Waldeck

Terrestrial season is here. Hoppers are growing and will be ready in August, but there’s so much more to try. There’s some great foam and traditional ant and beetle patterns out there, and with daily generation coming up into the grasses along the bank, you know a lot of bugs get put in the water.

Digital cameras make it easy to document such samples.

Summer dog days are here too. Water is great. Y’all come on in .

© 2010, Scott Branyan

It’s taken this long for the reservoirs to all get back to conservation pools. Greers Ferry reservoir has been around pool for some time and so generation there has been relatively light, mostly in the late afternoon and evening for a brief few hours.

Wade anglers will be happy to see some shut down at the other powerhouses too. Drift boat anglers will be happy to have the daily peak hydroelectric releases for several hours which will keep temperatures down and flows from bottoming out downriver. Great nymphing and some dry fly action ought to make every angler happy. About the only thing in the weather pattern that may monkey with lake levels will be a big rain event from a hurricane from now until the first end of summer cold front.

Don’t rush the hopper fishing. They aren’t ready yet and are still very small in my yard. Although, there seems to be a good crop of them. They should become a factor in late August. Until then any hopper you fish should be small and very impressionistic. Forget the large, hard bodied patterns. Madam-X style patterns work just fine. A Dave’s Hopper can be good, but keep it small. Don’t forget ants, beetles and some secret terrestrial patterns I tend to like. Use your imagination.

This hopper camouflages into the bark of the tree.

Algae and trash will still be a factor on Bull Shoals tailwater when generation starts up hard. Stay in the tailout window and you should be fine.

Enjoy the Independence Day weekend and our hard fought for freedoms. Thank a vet!

See you on the river.

© 2010, Scott Branyan

I had a chance to talk to Ron Moore this morning. Ron is the AGFC district biologist in Rogers and probably knows more about Beaver Lake and warm water species than any other guy around. He’s been doing sampling and studies for about 25 years. He says the lake is in as good a shape as he’s seen as far as a forage fish base and larger fish being produced. Walleye which were introduced just a few years ago are doing especially well.

AGFC trout biologists went out on Beaver tailwater Monday night to do a monthly sampling. Table Rock is backed up to the dam, and Ron said they had problems electoshocking fish with the deep water. He did indicate they saw several 5 foot long gar and lots of other warmer water species such as walleye. They also shocked out one or two hybrids.

Ron noted this is the third high water year in a row, and he cannot remember another string of 3 high water years in his career. Back-to-years are common, but not 3-in-a-row.

He suggested climate change is responsible. There’s another possibility. Perhaps I can talk about it sometime, but it’s related to research I’m doing on my book. For now, climate change is as good a guess as any I suppose.

© 2010, Scott Branyan

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineer’s regulation stage at Newport dropped to 14 feet from 21 feet on April 15th. This is an annual change. Newport is a downstream control point for Bull Shoals and Norfork dams. The regulating stage will drop again to 12 feet May 8th and will remain at that level until November 30th. The reason for the change is to allow a narrowing of the channel of the White River downriver of Newport so farmers can get their crops in. There are extenuating circumstances when the Corps can exceed these stages during flood conditions.

Three of the five White River reservoirs including Bull Shoals and Norfork are currently well into flood pools. Newport river stage today was over 16 feet and expected to reach the 14 foot regulating stage by Sunday.

Don’t look for a lot of reduction in flood storage from Bull Shoals and Norfork through the rest of the spring. With the lower regulating stage, those two powerhouses will have to run as steady as they can to bring the lake levels down, but limit generation because of the downstream constraints. Any big rains will be stored in the reservoirs until Newport drops below the regulating stage later in the summer. High water on those two tailwaters looks likely for a while. If seasonal heavy rains are lacking through June, all the lake levels will continue to fall faster.

© 2010, Scott Branyan

Remember what it looks like to see conservation pools in all of the White River lakes?

You probably don’t unless you made a note of conditions back in early October.

As wade fishing possibilities resume, anglers should exercise caution as always and not assume. Practice safe wading. Don’t wade where you shouldn’t be if water was to rise. Always have an escape route. Get out at the first sign of rising water or if in doubt.

Also, please remember the Corps is upgrading their realtime graphs and charts, and some of the information reflects “No Data” or incomplete data rather than low water. The Corps forecasts the data will be up-to-date by mid-March. As always when checking for low water, do not rely on one source of published data. Onstream conditions rule. Be aware of your surroundings.

Take advantage of the low water opportunities now. I suspect they will be short lived again this spring.

© 2010, Scott Branyan

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has posted its spring flood outlook. Long and short of it: an enhanced chance of above normal precipitation for March in Northwest Arkansas.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

…SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS…

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL…
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THIS SPRING. EXCEPT FOR THE MAINSTEM OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER…FLOODING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THE ARKANSAS RIVER MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

BASED ON OBSERVED SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS…OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS…AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS SPRING OVER THE WHITE BASIN IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GENERALLY DEFINES THE RISK OF LONG TERM RIVER FLOODING. IT DOES NOT ASSESS THE SHORT TERM RISK OF FLOODING…PARTICULARLY FLASH FLOODING. LOCALIZED…HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS IS TRUE EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT.

PRECIPITATION…
WATER-YEAR /BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2009/ RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HOWEVER…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RECEIVED ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. ACCORDING TO THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RECEIVED NEAR 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL AND IS RANKED AS THE 10TH WETTEST OCTOBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 18 PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921.

RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 60 DAYS /21 DECEMBER 2009 TO 18 FEBRUARY 2010/ WERE ALSO NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA REMAINED ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL AND RANKED AS THE 12TH WETTEST PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921 ACCORDING TO THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS…
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA…SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 80-95TH PERCENTILE. SOIL MOISTURE WAS IN EXCESS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR THE WHITE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS…
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE FLOWING AT NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER THE RED RIVER IS FLOWING AT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN WESTERN ARKANSAS ARE FLOWING AT AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS.

LAKE AND RESERVOIR CONDITIONS…
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS…RESERVOIRS IN THE ARKANSAS AND RED RIVER SYSTEMS WERE BOTH AVERAGING 93 PERCENT OF FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. BEAVER LAKE RESERVOIR IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN HAS 85 PERCENT OF FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

RECENT FLOODS…
THERE HAS BEEN NO MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO FAR IN 2010.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS…
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR…NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS…
THE MARCH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE SPRING OUTLOOK FOR MARCH-APRIL-MAY FROM CPC INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE…NEAR…AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HOWEVER…THERE
IS AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE NWS TULSA HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

RESOURCES…
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL AND WATER SUPPLY IS AVAILABLE AT…
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/WATERSUPPLY/INDEX.PHP
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE ARKANSAS RED BASIN AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTERS…THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER…THE USACE…THE USGS…THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. 

$$

© 2010, Scott Branyan

Here’s the truth. Things are not looking good for wade anglers again this spring.

As the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers planned for Bull Shoals dam and reservoir, the engineers calculated that Bull Shoals reservoir would use its flood storage, based on past records, an average of 20 days per year (about 5% of the year). You may be surprised to learn as I was, however, even with record or near record rainfall events in 2008 and 2009,  that flood storage capacity in the lake was utilized 288 days (about 79%) in 2008 and 306 days (about 84%) in 2009.

We are currently still into the flood pools in early 2010. If one remembers way back to last fall, in early October rains brought the lake levels up from normal well into the flood pools in just a matter of days. For example, Beaver’s flood storage went from 0% flood storage to 50% in five days from Oct 8^th to Oct 13^th. By the end of November Bull Shoals was at 59% flood storage. The corps began lowering the reservoirs on December 1^st. In December, the corps was forecasting empty dates in mid-January. By January 15^th, however, those were moved to the end of January. Now we are looking at the middle of February or even the end of February—all because of additional rains we’ve received.

What the spring of 2010 holds for us in precipitation no one can predict, but it appears we are ahead of the game as far as lake levels go. Today, all the White River reservoirs are three feet or more above their previous five-year average.

Don’t be surprised if this spring turns out to be another poor year for wade fishing. I suggest a strategy the fishes use–adapt. Anglers will have to use more high water techniques: double-handled rods and shooting heads along the banks, find friends with boats, hire a guide, or pray for drought. But, it’s the truth.

© 2010, Scott Branyan

[Update note: There is no archive. See the latest forecast.]

The first of the new fly-fishing forecast videos has been posted. This is an attempt to tell more of what goes into understanding the generation patterns on the tailwaters. Usual disclaimers apply (nothing official, everything subject to change!).

As this process gets easier for me, I hope to do an end-of-the-week video covering actual fly-fishing reports, hatches and fly patterns which are effective.

Here are the links to the Corps data pages I reference in the video. These are found on the Little Rock Corps District page. The graphs are already linked on the river report page. I will do some individual videos on the primary data pages from the corps to help give folks a feel for how I use them to help see trends and patterns.

Little Rock District Page

Current Conditions

Daily Reservoir Report

Forecast Elevations Report

Please let me know how you like, or not, the videos and any suggestions you might have. Thanks!

I am looking forward to a great spring of fishing,

© 2010, Scott Branyan

The corps has not published revised forecast dates yet for the White River reservoirs to have flood storage empty, but it looks like, based on current conditions, the earliest Beaver reservoir could start its draw down would be about January 20th. Bull Shoals, Norfork and Greers Ferry reservoirs should all have flood storage near empty at about that time. The lake temperature at Bull Shoals dropped under 50° today. It will take the rest of the month of January for it to fall near 41° where you start seeing major shad kill. The rub is that is about the time the heavy around-the-clock generation will end at Bull Shoals and Norfork dams unless we get more major precipitation. Beaver reservoir should reach the low 40s sooner than the other lakes. We may actually have superb shad kill fishing conditions in the tailwater the end of January here this year. So keep this in mind as you plan. Of course, actual conditions will probably change between now and then.

© 2010, Scott Branyan